Basically, I’m expecting Academy Award night to go by the numbers with no surprises which will be the biggest surprise. I have been tracking the various awards and this is an outsider’s guide with just awareness of how the Academy may be voted through articles and overall wins. Let’s start with Best Sound: I think All Quiet on the Western Front will take this one. Just a general sense, a part of the Academy voters are European. Best Score: I think Babylon will take it. Composer Justin Hurwitz won best score and song for his other collaboration with director, Damien Chazelle, La La Land (2016). He does have competition with John Williams with The Fabelmans. I think the glaring mistake is leaving out Alexandre Desplat’s score for Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio. Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Whale, Brandan Fraser’s performance. There’s of course brilliant work in Elvis following him through his life. Plus, The Batman with the Penguin’s make-up.
The room of Academy Awards, Academy Museum, 2022, author’s photo.
Best Costume Design: I think Ruth E. Carter has a lock for this one, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, a technical category. She is a previous winner for Black Panther (2018). Best Animated Film: Another lock with Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio winning the Annie and Critics Choice Award. A good field, but misses out on Wendell & Wild directed by Henry Selick, streaming on Netflix. Also, Phil Tippett’s masterpiece, Mad God which is streaming on Shudder. Visual Effects: the clear winner is Avatar: The Way of Water, I just wasn’t impressed visually as the first movie, plus this furthers the trend of not building sets and costumes. It did win over the effects divisions. I think what was left out was the five Everything workers who created visuals I never would have imagined, Everything Bagel, more fantastic than anything Pandora and tied to the family’s story. Best Production Design: I’m thinking it will go to Babylon, old Hollywood energized, I don’t see any campaigning or interviews for it.
Guillermo del Toro adjusting the Geppetto figure at the Variety Screening Series, January 11th, photo by the author.
Best Original Song: Um, this is an easy one, “Naatu Naatu”, RRR. It looks like the Academy voters are going for it. Winner of the Critics Choice Award. I think a very good runner-up is Rhianna’s “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. So “Naatu Naatu”, 65%, and “Lift Me Up”, 30% with others in the low percentages. The one song that I really think is missing is “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio. I guess Academy voters can’t relate to a son going out to the wide world to save his father. Best International Film: All Quiet on the Western Front which swept the British Film Academy awards. Runners up include Argentina, 1985 and Ireland’s The Quiet Girl. Best Film Editing: I’m sensing Top Gun: Maverick will win here. A reported 800 hours were trimmed down to the film’s two hour, eleven minutes, a feat. Right up there is Everything which is a sentimental favorite with making sense out of chaos, but I think the number of awards for it, will be kept to a few. Best Cinematography: Another crowded field with some greats, Roger Deakins for Empire of Light, but I think it will go to Mandy Walker for capturing the spectacle and life of Elvis. I would add that Claudio Miranda was slighted for leaving him out of Top Gun: Maverick's noms since the special cameras had to invented, tested, and used with actors in the movie!
Yes, the audience does get up to dance for “Naatu Naatu”, Ace Hotel, March 1st, author’s photo.
Best Original Screenplay: Everything is a lock since it won the Writer’s Guild Award, the Critics Choice Award, and others. I’m thinking it will be it’s first award of the night. Adapted Screenplay: I’m pulling for Sarah Polley whose Women Talking is shut out of the rest of the categories, plus she won the Writer’s Guild Award. Best Supporting Actress: here I’m breaking away from the usual favorite, Jamie Lee Curtis won the SAG award, so I’m thinking that recognition from her peers is enough. I think the Academy, no evidence, will be spreading around the winners and chose Angela Bassett for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Entertainment Weekly’s secret Oscar voters picked her. The problem of course is Hollywood giving a major award to a comic book movie, the industry is not MCU fans. So I would not be surprised if Curtis takes it and would happy to be proven wrong. The spoiler could be Kerry Condon for The Banshees of Inisherin which wouldn’t get wins except maybe this category. Bassett, 45%, Curtis, 35%, Condon, 20%
The purple dress worn by Queen Ramonda (Angela Bassett) at the UN, 2022, photo by the author.
Best Supporting Actor: odds are Ke Huy Quan is a favorite for Everything, Everywhere All at Once, Quan’s story is so hopeful to all actors and a message to Hollywood. He has won SAG, Critics Choice, Independent Spirit Awards, the majority of recognition is behind him. Quan, 90%, with possible, but not really upset by Barry Keoghan for The Banshees of Inisherin. Best Actress, this would be a night ender, if Michelle Yeoh loses to Cate Blanchett. I don’t think things change with a Blanchett, look at her previous wins; Best Actress, Blue Jasmine (2013) and Best Supporting Actress, The Aviator (2004). Did the actress field open for more movies featuring actresses and diverse actresses after those wins? Will Yeoh winning automatically open the doors? Look at Halle Berry’s wins with Best Actress for Monster’s Ball (2001) and Primetime Emmy win for Introducing Dorothy Dandridge (1999), also wins from the Screen Actors Guild. The following year Salma Hayek was nommed for Frida (2002) and after that Keisha Castle-Hughes for the Whale Rider (2002). A slow build, the point is not to win awards, but to have a presence and representation on film and television. Yeoh win, I put at 75%, a spoiler for Blanchett, 25%. Not on the ballot, it’s just wrong, are Danielle Deadwyler (Till) and Viola Davis (Woman King).
Brandan Fraser won Best Actor for The Whale at the Screen Actors Guild and Hollywood Critics Association. He has competition for Austin Butler’s Elvis, which I think is a career defining performance, but I think he is still young and can return to the noms. I absolutely love that two 20th century icons; Elvis (Butler) and Blonde - Marilyn Monroe (Ana de Armas) are nommed. The Variety prediction by Clayton Davis is that The Daniels will “pull of the hat trick, taking picture, director, and original screenplay.” Variety pointed out the at seven of the ten PGA winners won Best Picture. Directors Guild Awards, remember that the branch for the categories are voting on will swing for the vote and it looks like The Daniels; Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert have won the DGA and I think the most important for them is the Independant Spirit Awards since they came from independent filmmaking. The secret Oscar voters all put Everything as Best Picture as well as the Screen Actors Guild for Best Ensemble. So this is the breakdown (out of 19 categories); Everything - 5 awards (big winner or will it win more and shut out films?), The Whale - 2, All Quiet - 2, Black Panther 2 - 2, Babylon - 2, RRR - 1 out of 1, Elvis - 1, Pinocchio - 1, Women Talking - 1, Top Gun: Maverick - 1, Avatar 2 -1. Just one more day to find out the winners!
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